RUSSIANS ‘MOBILIZE’ — TO FLEE: Social media is filled with videos showing long lines of cars at various border crossings and airports, as thousands of Russian men subject to President Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization” elect to flee the country instead.
“I am simply not letting Putin turn me into a killer in a war that I want no part in,” a 29-year-old sergeant in the Russian reserves told The Guardian, as he prepared to drive to Kazakhstan.
Cars were lined up at the Finnish border, as the country’s prime minister considered barring entry by Russians in the face of the growing influx of draft resisters. "The government's will is very clear, we believe Russian tourism (to Finland) must be stopped,” Sanna Marin told reporters, according to Reuters.
In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Putin plans to call up, not 300,000 troops, but 1 million. “Our intelligence has proven it,” Zelensky said. “We know that they will take everyone indiscriminately. Not only the military in the reserve, but any men.”
“Fifty-five thousand Russian soldiers died in this war in six months. Tens of thousands are wounded and maimed,” Zelensky said. “Want more? No? Then protest. Fight back. Run away. Or surrender to Ukrainian captivity. These are options for you to survive.”
DMYTRO KULEBA MOCKS LAVROV: 'RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS FLEE ALMOST AS APTLY AS RUSSIAN SOLDIERS'
NATO: ‘SHAM REFERENDA … HAVE NO LEGITIMACY’: Russian forces today began going door to door in the regions of Ukraine it currently controls, conducting the first day of voting aimed at creating a pretense for annexing about 15% of the country as Russia’s invasion sputters.
In a formal statement, NATO “condemned in the strongest possible terms” what it called the “so-called ‘referenda’” Russia plans to hold, beginning today, in regions of Ukraine under control of the Russian military.
“Sham referenda in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine have no legitimacy and will be a blatant violation of the U.N. Charter,” the statement said. “NATO allies will not recognize their illegal and illegitimate annexation.”
At the U.N. yesterday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that most of the Ukrainians who lived in those areas have either fled or were forcibly relocated under Russia’s “filtration” campaign.
“This is a diabolical strategy: violently uprooting thousands of Ukrainians, bus in Russians to replace them, call a vote, manipulate the results to show near unanimous support for joining the Russian Federation,” said Blinken. “This is right out of the Crimea playbook.”
PUTIN MOVING RUSSIANS INTO UKRAINIAN REGIONS BEFORE SHAM VOTE, BLINKEN SAYS
‘A SIGN OF DESPERATION’: A new analysis of the progress of the war at the seven month mark by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concludes Ukrainian forces have conducted “impressive combined arms operations,” while the Russian Army has “performed poorly,” and has “struggled with low morale, poor execution, corruption, and an inability to achieve air superiority.”
“These problems will be difficult to fix even with President Putin’s partial mobilization,” the CSIS analysts say, characterizing the call-up of some 300,000 military reservists as “a sign of desperation.”
The British Defense Ministry called the mobilization “the latest sign its invasion of Ukraine is failing,” and in a tweet said, “Russia is likely to struggle with the logistical and administrative challenges of even mustering the 300,000 personnel.”
“The move is effectively an admission that Russia has exhausted its supply of willing volunteers to fight in Ukraine,” the ministry said, adding that “many of these troops … are unlikely to be combat effective for months.”
Noting the mobilization is “highly unpopular” with a large number of Russians, the British intelligence assessment said that “Putin is accepting considerable political risk in the hope of generating much needed combat power.”
In his nightly address, Zelensky said, “Russia's decision on mobilization is a frank admission that their regular army, which has been prepared for decades to take over a foreign country, did not withstand and crumbled.”
PUTIN’S MOBILIZATION MAY NOT SOLVE ALL HIS MILITARY PROBLEMS, PENTAGON SAYS
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
ON A PERSONAL NOTE: There will be no Daily on Defense on Monday, Sept. 26, as I travel out of town for the funeral of a close relative who lost a long battle with cancer. We’ll be back in your inbox and online Tuesday, Sept. 27.
PUTIN’S NOT-SO-VEILED THREAT: The U.S. says the strategy behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation plan is to use the results of the illegitimate referenda to declare currently occupied areas in southern and eastern Ukraine to be part of Russia, and therefore protected from attack by Russia’s nuclear umbrella.
“This week, President Putin said that Russia would not hesitate to use, and I quote, “all weapons systems available,” end quote, in response to a threat to its territorial integrity, a threat that is all the more menacing given Russia’s intention to annex large swaths of Ukraine in the days ahead,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his U.N. address.
“When that’s complete, we can expect President Putin will claim any Ukrainian effort to liberate this land as an attack on so-called ‘Russian territory.’ This from a country that in January of this year, in this place, joined other permanent members of the Security Council in signing a statement affirming that, and I quote, ‘nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought,’” Blinken said. “Yet another example of how Russia violates the commitments it’s made before this body, and yet another reason why nobody should take Russia at its word today.”
FATHER OF ANTONY BLINKEN DIES
NOT SO FAST ON LANDMINES: Citing the lessons from Ukraine, Republican leaders of the four House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations and Affairs committees are questioning the wisdom of destroying current stocks of anti-personnel mines to comply with provisions of the 1997 Ottawa Convention, which was never ratified by the Senate.
Under changes announced June 21, the Biden administration committed to comply with the spirit of the Ottawa protocols by limiting the use of anti-personnel mines to the Korean peninsula and destroying stockpiles of mines not required for the defense of South Korea.
“As we have seen in the recent conflict in Ukraine, landmines remain an important tool in modern warfare — one that the United States military should not unilaterally relinquish in the absence of a readily accessible alternative capability,” write the four lawmakers in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Binken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. “Considering the obvious operational benefits of anti-personnel landmines, the United States should not unnecessarily issue a policy depriving U.S. troops access to anti-personnel landmines currently in DOD stocks simply to pursue an ideal that our adversaries will not follow.”
The Sept. 21 letter is signed by Sens. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking members of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees; and Reps. Mike Rogers (R-AL) and Michael McCaul (R-TX), ranking members of the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees in the House.
CSO NOMINEE SALTZMAN ADVANCES: The Senate Armed Services Committee has voted to send the nomination of Lt. Gen. Bradley Saltzman to be promoted to four-star rank and named chief of space operations to the full Senate for a vote.
Saltzman was among 3,571 pending military promotions in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Space Force approved in committee en bloc by voice vote. The committee also approved en bloc the nominations of Milancy Harris to be deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Brendan Owens to be assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment; and Laura Taylor-Kale to be assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy.
MENENDEZ, RISCH URGE BIDEN TO DEEM RUSSIAN DISSIDENT WRONGFULLY DETAINED: The top Democrat and Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are calling on President Joe Biden to say whether Russia’s imprisonment of opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza qualifies as a human rights violation under the 2012 Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act.
“The ongoing imprisonment of Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza, which we assess is based on fabricated and politically-motivated charges, suggests that he could be a victim of a gross violation of his internationally recognized human rights,” Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID) and Bob Menendez (D-NJ), ranking member and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Furthermore, one of the pending charges against Mr. Kara-Murza pertains to his participation in a conference in support of Russian political prisoners, which could suggest that the Russian government targeted him for his defense of their human rights.”
Under the 2012 law, Biden is obligated to inform Congress whether he intends to sanction parties for their complicity in wrongfully targeting Kara-Murza.
US SANCTIONS IRAN’S MORALITY POLICE: With more than two dozen deaths reported in mass protests in Tehran over the unexplained death of a young woman, arrested for allegedly violating its dress code, the U.S. has announced sanctions on Iran’s notorious morality police and other “senior security officials who have engaged in serious human rights abuses,” according to the State Department.
“The United States condemns the tragic and brutal death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian woman who died in the custody of the Iranian Morality Police after being detained for purportedly wearing a hijab too loosely,” a State Department statement said.
“The Iranian government needs to end its systemic persecution of women and allow peaceful protest. The United States will continue to voice our support for human rights in Iran and hold those who violate them to account.”
TREASURY DEPARTMENT SANCTIONS IRAN’S 'MORALITY POLICE' AMID DEADLY PROTESTS
SYRIAN ALLIED FORCES THWART SUICIDE ATTACK: An ISIS vehicle, laden with powerful explosives, detonated “prematurely” Tuesday en route to what would have been a deadly suicide attack on the al-Hol displaced persons camp in Syria, a fortuitous event that allowed U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces to intercept a second vehicle and thwart the plot.
"One vehicle — rigged with explosives and personnel wearing explosive suicide vests — prematurely exploded near the Um Fakik village, approximately 12 miles northeast of the intended target at al-Hol,” said a release from the U.S. Central Command. “This explosion alerted Syrian Democratic Forces operating in the area who then arrived within minutes and surrounded the second vehicle.”
"Two men exited the second vehicle wearing suicide vests. One detonated his vest. Syrian Democratic Forces shot and killed the second man,” said the CENTCOM statement. “The second vehicle was rigged with at least 50 kilograms [110 pounds] of explosives.”
"By taking immediate action, and showing disregard for their own safety, the Syrian Democratic Forces demonstrated their professionalism and commitment to creating and maintaining a safe and prosperous region for the people who make it their home,” said Col. Joe Buccino, a CENTCOM spokesman. “The response of our partnered forces highlights not only dedication to their people, but also their tenacity and commitment to the enduring defeat of ISIS."
CENTCOM says no Syrian Democratic Forces were killed or wounded, while one ISIS fighter was taken prisoner and four others were killed.
US-BACKED SYRIAN FORCES THWART SUICIDE BOMBING ATTEMPT AT REFUGEE CAMP
INDUSTRY WATCH: RAYTHEON AWARDED CONTRACT FOR HYPERSONIC ATTACK CRUISE MISSILE: The Pentagon announced last night that Raytheon Missiles & Defense, in partnership with Northrop Grumman, has won the competition to build the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM, beating out Lockheed Martin and Boeing.
Under the $985.3 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, Raytheon will build the first-of-its-kind weapon for the U.S. Air Force, with work scheduled to be completed by March 2027.
“The Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile is an air-breathing, scramjet powered munition. Scramjet engines use high vehicle speed to forcibly compress incoming air before combustion, which enables sustained flight at hypersonic speeds – Mach 5 or greater,” the company said in a statement. “By traveling at these speeds, hypersonic weapons, like HACM, are able to reach their targets more quickly than similar traditional missiles, allowing them to potentially evade defensive systems.”
Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman Corporation has announced its board of directors has elected Roshan Roeder corporate vice president and president of its Defense Systems sector. Effective Oct. 13, Roeder will succeed Mary Petryszyn, who has announced she’s retiring Jan. 13 of next year.
“Roshan is a seasoned executive with extensive experience leading a broad spectrum of businesses," said Kathy Warden, chair, chief executive officer and president of Northrop Grumman said in a company statement. “With her leadership, our Defense Systems businesses will continue to thrive as they deliver mission-critical capabilities for our customers.”
Petryszyn will continue as corporate vice president, reporting to Warden to support the transition until her retirement.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Washington Examiner: Putin’s mobilization may not solve all his military problems, Pentagon says
Washington Examiner: Putin moving Russians into Ukrainian regions before sham vote, Blinken says
Washington Examiner: 'Punish yourselves': Lavrov dismisses 'narrative about Russian aggression' in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Dmytro Kuleba mocks Lavrov: 'Russian diplomats flee almost as aptly as Russian soldiers'
Washington Examiner: North Korea says it hasn’t supplied military weapons to Russia
Washington Examiner: Father of Antony Blinken dies
Washington Examiner: Treasury Department sanctions Iran’s 'Morality Police' amid deadly protests
Washington Examiner: Department of Defense attempts to help soldiers financially with new directives
Washington Examiner: Republicans say Gen. Mark Milley overstepped authority to thwart Trump
Washington Examiner: Military recruiter kills wife as she's being interviewed by NCIS over abuse claims
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Corporate America holds fast to Communist China in Hong Kong
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Winning the peace in Ukraine
AP: World opinion shifts against Russia as Ukraine worries grow
Washington Post: U.S. Has Sent Moscow Private Warnings On Nuclear Weapons
Wall Street Journal: Pentagon Pressed On Drones To Ukraine
Politico: ‘These Are Not Rental Cars’: As Ukraine Pleads For Tanks, The West Holds Back
Washington Post: Why women are burning hijabs in Iran
AP: Iran state TV suggests at least 26 dead from protests
Reuters: U.S. Calls Iranian Demand To End Nuclear Probes 'Unreasonable'
Reuters: Biden, Philippines' Marcos Discuss Tensions In South China Sea
Asia Times: Pointed At China, U.S. Spreads THAAD All Around Guam
Defense One: US Military: Bad Publicity Is Hurting Recruiting. Lawmakers: Fix Your Problems
Breaking Defense: Air National Guard Director Wants Boost to F-15EX Buy
Bloomberg: Raytheon Beats Lockheed, Boeing for $1 Billion Hypersonic Cruise Missile
AP: US aircraft carrier arrives in South Korea for joint drills
AP: Officials: Navy bribery case fugitive tried to get to Russia
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air National Guard Embraces ACE Amid Tensions in Europe, Pacific
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senior Enlisted Leader: Ukraine is an ACE Success Story
19fortyfive.com: The Sneaky Way Iran Could Build an ICBM
19fortyfive.com: Putin Should Know This: NATO Also Has Nuclear Weapons (Sort Of)
19fortyfive.com: Putin's War in Ukraine Seems Destined to Collapse
19fortyfive.com: Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapons if Conquered Territory Attacked: Medvedev
19fortyfive.com: HIMARS and MLRS Are Great But Ukraine Needs More M119A3 Artillery Guns
Forbes: The Army’s Joint Light Tactical Vehicle Is A Model Of What Military Acquisition Can Accomplish
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion China's Next Act: How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future, with author Scott Moore, director of the University of Pennsylvania's China Programs and Strategic Initiatives; Carla Freeman, senior expert on China, U.S. Institute of Peace; and Andrew Mertha, director of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies' China Global Research Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-chinas-next-act-scott-m-moore
11 a.m. 760 Maine Avenue S.W. — 2022 Atlantic Festival discussion: “Threats to Democracy: The Latest on the Course of the War in Ukraine,” with White House Chief of Staff Ronald Klain https://hopin.com/events/atlantic-festival
8 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Denis McDonough, secretary of veterans affairs https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu Contact: Thom Shanker at tshanker@email.gwu.edu
9 a.m. — Center for European Policy Analysis virtual three-day CEPA forum: “Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads,” with Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, NATO supreme allied commander Europe, commander, U.S. European Command; Romanian Prime Minister H.E. Nicolae-Ionel Ciuca, Kurt Volker, distinguished fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state; and Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Thom Tillis (R-NC) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and Roger Wicker and others Full agenda: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum/agenda/ Register: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person event: “Poland and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Zbigniew Rau, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland,” with John Hamre, CSIS president and CEO; and Max Bergmann, director, Europe Program and Stuart Center https://www.csis.org/events/poland-and-war-ukraine-conversation
9:30 a.m. — Center for European Policy Analysis virtual CEPA forum: “Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads,” with Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov; Wendy Sherman, U.S. deputy secretary of state; Slovak President Zuzana Caputova; Stefano Sannino, secretary-general, European External Action Service; Brian Nelson, Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, and Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), and others Full agenda: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum/agenda/ Register: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum
9 a.m. — Center for European Policy Analysis concludes virtual three-day CEPA forum: “Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads,” with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL); Sen. James Risch (R-ID); James Foggo, distinguished fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; and others. Full agenda: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum/agenda/ Register: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee hearing: "Assessing the Biden Administration's U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa." https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
“Indeed, it must be asked: How has this aggression against Ukraine by President Putin improved the lives or prospects of a single Russian citizen? One man chose this war. One man can end it. Because if Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking Thursday at the U.N. Security Council ministerial on Ukrainian sovereignty and Russian accountability.